哈萨克斯坦酒精饮料市场调查分析报告

Executive summary

Alcoholic drinks achieves steady growth in 2007

Alcoholic drinks in Kazakhstan grew by a CAGR of over 8% in total volume terms and by a CAGR of over 14% in total constant value terms over the review period to achieve total volume sales of over 657 million litres and total value sales of nearly KZT243 billion. However over the forecast period the growth of alcoholic drinks is expected to slow down to a total volume CAGR of just over 3% and a total constant value CAGR of below 4% owing to governmental policies aimed in part at reducing volume consumption of beer, as it is believed that high consumption of beer can lead to alcoholism.

Government to discourage the consumption of alcohol via price increases

In 2007, the Government of Kazakhstan was in the process of initiating a campaign targeted at reducing the level of alcohol consumption in the country. Interestingly, this campaign also targets consumption of beer although this contradicts previous policies to lead consumers away from “strong” alcoholic beverages towards beer. The government has developed measures such as increasing prices in alcoholic drinks on all products including those in beer in order to establish a more regulatory environment.

Local players account for largest total volume shares of alcoholic drinks

Local players Ak-Nar, Efes Karaganda JSC IP and Baltic Beverages Holding AB (BBH) accounted for the largest total volume shares of alcoholic drinks in 2006. These three players are all present in beer, which accounts for the largest total volume share of alcoholic drinks.

Strength of supermarkets/hypermarkets continues to increase

Supermarkets/hypermarkets accounted for the strongest retail value share of alcoholic drinks in 2007 but followed closely behind independent food stores in terms of retail volume share. With regard to its retail volume shares, supermarkets/hypermarkets was the leading channel of distribution in wine in 2007 and the joint leading channel in spirits with independent food stores. However, in beer, independent food stores remained ahead of supermarkets/hypermarkets in terms of retail volume share in 2007, nevertheless it witnessed its share decrease while that of supermarkets/hypermarkets increased.

Wine expected to achieve strongest total volume growth over forecast period

Although the total growth of alcoholic drinks is expected to be lower than it was over the review period alcoholic drinks is expected to grow by a total volume CAGR of just over 3% and a total constant value CAGR of below 4% driven predominantly by demand for wine. Wine is expected to grow by a total volume CAGR of 6% while that of beer is expected to be 4% and that of spirits is expected to be –3%. Spirits is expected to suffer due to a further slowdown in the total volume growth of vodka owing to the government’s anti-alcohol campaign.

Table of contents

ALCOHOLIC DRINKS IN KAZAKHSTAN : MARKET INSIGHT

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Alcoholic drinks achieves steady growth in 2007

Government to discourage the consumption of alcohol via price increases

Local players account for largest total volume shares of alcoholic drinks

Strength of supermarkets/hypermarkets continues to increase

Wine expected to achieve strongest total volume growth over forecast period

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Initiatives to curb alcohol consumption

Preference for “premium” products among high-income consumers

Beer continues to be the strongest category in alcoholic drinks

Specialist retailers

Summary 1 Leading Specialist Retailers 2006

Market Merger and Acquisition Activity

MARKET BACKGROUND

Legislation

TAXATION AND DUTY LEVIES

Table 1 Taxation and Duty Levies on Alcoholic Drinks 2007

Table 2 Typical Wholesaler and Retailer Off-trade Mark-ups by Selected Sectors 2007

Table 3 Selling Margin of a Typical Domestically Produced Beer Brand 2007

Table 4 Selling Margin of a Typical Domestically Produced Wine Brand 2007

Table 5 Selling Margin of a Typical Imported Wine Brand 2007

Table 6 Selling Margin of a Typical Domestically Produced Spirits Brand 2007

Table 7 Selling Margin of a Typical Imported Spirits Brand 2007

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

MARKET INDICATORS

Table 8 Retail Consumer Expenditure on Alcoholic Drinks 2002-2007

MARKET DATA

Table 9 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Sector: Total Volume 2002-2007

Table 10 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Sector: Total Value 2002-2007

Table 11 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Sector: % Total Volume Growth 2002-2007

Table 12 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Sector: % Total Value Growth 2002-2007

Table 13 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Sector by On-trade vs Off-trade split: Volume 2007

Table 14 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Sector by On-trade vs Off-trade split: Value 2007

Table 15 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Sector by On-trade vs Off-trade split: % Volume 2007

Table 16 Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Sector by On-trade vs Off-trade split: % Value 2007

Table 17 Company Shares of Alcoholic Drinks by Global Brand Owner 2003-2006

Table 18 Off-trade Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Distribution Format: % Value Analysis 2007

Table 19 Off-trade Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Sector and Distribution Format: % Volume Analysis 2007

Table 20 Forecast Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Sector: Total Volume 2007-2012

Table 21 Forecast Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Sector: Total Value 2007-2012

Table 22 Forecast Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Sector: % Total Volume Growth 2007-2012

Table 23 Forecast Sales of Alcoholic Drinks by Sector: % Total Value Growth 2007-2012

DEFINITIONS

Sources

Summary 2 Research Sources

ALVZ OJSC

Strategic Direction

Key Facts

Summary 3 ALVZ OJSC: Key Facts

Summary 4 ALVZ OJSC: Operational Indicators

Company Background

Production

Summary 5 ALVZ OJSC: Production Statistics 2006

Competitive Positioning

Summary 6 ALVZ OJSC: Competitive Position 2006

ROSA OJSC

Strategic Direction

Key Facts

Summary 7 Rosa OJSC: Key Facts

Summary 8 Rosa OJSC: Operational Indicators

Company Background

Production

Summary 9 Rosa OJSC: Production Statistics 2006

Competitive Positioning

Summary 10 Rosa OJSC: Competitive Position 2006

WIMPEX LTD

Strategic Direction

Summary 11 Wimpex Ltd: Key Facts

Summary 12 Wimpex Ltd: Operational Indicators

Company Background

Production

Summary 13 Wimpex Ltd: Production Statistics 2006

Competitive Positioning

Summary 14 Wimpex Ltd: Competitive Position 2006

SHYMKENT PIVO CJSC

Strategic Direction

Key Facts

Table 24 Summary15 Shymkent Pivo CJSC: Key Facts

Summary 15 Shymkent Pivo CJSC: Operational Indicators

Company Background

Production

Summary 16 Shymkent Pivo CJSC: Production Statistics 2006

Competitive Positioning

Summary 17 Shymkent Pivo CJSC: Competitive Position 2006

BEER IN KAZAKHSTAN

Headlines

Trends

Production, Imports and Exports

Competitive Landscape

Prospects

Sector Background

Summary 18 Lager by Price Band 2007

Sector Data

Table 25 Sales of Beer by Subsector: Total Volume 2002-2007

Table 26 Sales of Beer by Subsector: Total Value 2002-2007

Table 27 Sales of Beer by Subsector: % Total Volume Growth 2002-2007

Table 28 Sales of Beer by Subsector: % Total Value Growth 2002-2007

Table 29 Sales of Beer by On-trade vs Off-trade split: Volume 2002-2007

Table 30 Sales of Beer by On-trade vs Off-trade split: Value 2002-2007

Table 31 Sales of Beer by On-trade vs Off-trade split: % Volume Growth 2002-2007

Table 32 Sales of Beer by On-trade vs Off-trade split: % Value Growth 2002-2007

Table 33 Company Shares of Beer by National Brand Owner 2002-2006

Table 34 Company Shares of Beer by Global Brand Owner 2002-2006

Table 35 Brand Shares of Beer 2003-2006

Table 36 Forecast Sales of Beer by Subsector: Total Volume 2007-2012

Table 37 Forecast Sales of Beer by Subsector: Total Value 2007-2012

Table 38 Forecast Sales of Beer by Subsector: % Total Volume Growth 2007-2012

Table 39 Forecast Sales of Beer by Subsector: % Total Value Growth 2007-2012

WINE IN KAZAKHSTAN

Headlines

Trends

Production, Imports and Exports

Competitive Landscape

Prospects

Sector Background

Sector Data

Table 40 Sales of Wine by Subsector: Total Volume 2002-2007

Table 41 Sales of Wine by Subsector: Total Value 2002-2007

Table 42 Sales of Wine by Subsector: % Total Volume Growth 2002-2007

Table 43 Sales of Wine by Subsector: % Total Value Growth 2002-2007

Table 44 Sales of Wine by On-trade vs Off-trade split: Volume 2002-2007

Table 45 Sales of Wine by On-trade vs Off-trade split: Value 2002-2007

Table 46 Sales of Wine by On-trade vs Off-trade split: % Volume Growth 2002-2007

Table 47 Sales of Wine by On-trade vs Off-trade split: % Value Growth 2002-2007

Table 48 Forecast Sales of Wine by Subsector: Total Volume 2007-2012

Table 49 Forecast Sales of Wine by Subsector: Total Value 2007-2012

Table 50 Forecast Sales of Wine by Subsector: % Total Volume Growth 2007-2012

Table 51 Forecast Sales of Wine by Subsector: % Total Value Growth 2007-2012

SPIRITS IN KAZAKHSTAN

Headlines

Trends

Production, Imports and Exports

Competitive Landscape

Prospects

Sector Data

Table 52 Sales of Spirits by Subsector: Total Volume 2002-2007

Table 53 Sales of Spirits by Subsector: Total Value 2002-2007

Table 54 Sales of Spirits by Subsector: % Total Volume Growth 2002-2007

Table 55 Sales of Spirits by Subsector: % Total Value Growth 2002-2007

Table 56 Sales of Spirits by On-trade vs Off-trade split: Volume 2002-2007

Table 57 Sales of Spirits by On-trade vs Off-trade split: Value 2002-2007

Table 58 Sales of Spirits by On-trade vs Off-trade split: % Volume Growth 2002-2007

Table 59 Sales of Spirits by On-trade vs Off-trade split: % Value Growth 2002-2007

Table 60 Company Shares of Spirits by National Brand Owner 2002-2006

Table 61 Company Shares of Spirits by Global Brand Owner 2002-2006

Table 62 Brand Shares of Spirits 2003-2006

Table 63 Forecast Sales of Spirits by Subsector: Total Volume 2007-2012

Table 64 Forecast Sales of Spirits by Subsector: Total Value 2007-2012

Table 65 Forecast Sales of Spirits by Subsector: % Total Volume Growth 2007-2012

Table 66 Forecast Sales of Spirits by Subsector: % Total Value Growth 2007-2012

RTDS/HIGH-STRENGTH PREMIXES IN KAZAKHSTAN

Headlines

Trends

Production, Imports and Exports

Competitive Landscape